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type     June, 2005

Vol 2 Chapter 33: Risk Assessment Methodology for CO2 Storage: The Scenario Approach

A.F.B. Wildenborg,p, A.L. Leijnse, E. Kreft, M.N. Nepveu, A.N.M. Obdam, B. Orlic, E.L. Wipfler, B. van der Grift, W. van Kesteren, I. Gaus, I. Czernichowski-Lauriol, P. Torfs and R. Wojcik

Abstract: The ambition of the R&D work presented here was to further develop the “scenario approach” as a methodology for the long-term safety assessment of underground CO2 storage and to demonstrate its applicability in an example of safety assessment. The developed methodology consists of three main parts:

  1. scenario analysis,
  2. model development and
  3. consequence analysis.

The scenario analysis focuses on a comprehensive inventory of risk factors (Features, Events and Processes, FEPs) and subsequent selection of the most critical factors that will be grouped into discrete CO2 leakage scenarios. Quantitative physico-mathematical models need to be developed to enable a quantitative safety assessment of the scenarios in the consequence analysis. The developed method was successfully applied to two virtual settings in the southern part of the North Sea. In these examples, two leakage scenarios were considered, leakage up a fault and through a failed well. Modeling showed that CO2 concentrations and fluxes in the biosphere were largest in the case of a leaking well, compared to the leaking fault. However, the duration of release of CO2 to the biosphere was longer in case of the leaking fault. The assessed scenarios did not include any monitoring or mitigation measures and thus represent worst-case situations in this respect. The outcome of the assessment enables the development of a monitoring system and mitigation plan so that the safety risks can be adequately managed.

Carbon Dioxide Capture for Storage in Deep Geologic Formations – Results from the CO2 Capture Project Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide with Monitoring and Verification - Volume 2
Edited by:
Sally M. Benson, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA

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